Fall Break! Whoo-hoo!

Yep, it's Fall Break for Hanoverians. This makes me happy, as it gives me a wonderful opportunity to say I'm going to get caught up on a billion things and then do about half of them. Yay!
As a reward to myself for working on "Surrender," I am now allowing myself to start reading "A Singular Touch of Grace," a fanfic by leia_naberrie and geo3, she who wrote "The Hour of Souls," "Step Into My Parlor," "Children of Circumstance," and "The Winds of Change," which made me cry during my student assistant period. And now that I've started it, I remember why I wasn't reading it in the first place: my self-esteem. All of that, gone now. I suck. Oh, well.
This is my Carrot Theory, which I have decided to post after all. It's far-fetched, and probably incorrect, but you know what they say about million-to-one chances. In any case, I do have some very important math concerning Discworld chronology (The Glass Clock of DOOM).

Okay. It's like this.

Vimes, I'm guessing, is in about his mid-forties by the time of Guards! Guards! and he was in his mid-teens in Night Watch. That places about thirty years in between, which is accurate, because the beginning of Night Watch is slightly over thirty years after the Revolution.

Guards! Guards! takes place about a year after Wyrd Sisters ends. Wyrd Sisters contains the Lancre Timeslip, an event engineered by the witches which brought the kingdom fifteen years into the future. So Wyrd Sisters ends, for the rest of the world, sixteen years after it begins. (At one point in the story a year goes past, but that is in the normal progression of time. From that point to the end of the story, fifteen years pass in the world outside.) So while about two minutes have passed in Lancre, fifteen years have passed in Ankh-Morpork. Copperhead Mountain, where Carrot grows up, is part of Lancre, so it must have been caught in the Timeslip, too. Carrot is sixteen in Guards! Guards! which, as I have previously vouchsafed, is about a year after Wyrd Sisters and the Timeslip. That means he was fifteen when the timeslip ended. Which means he was fifteen when it began. That places his birth about thirty years (Ankh-Morpork time) before Guards! Guards! Which is around the time of Night Watch.

Here's the equation:

Night Watch--> Carrot's birth + 15 years + 15 years of timeslip (Carrot doesn't age) + 1 year- Carrot is sixteen = 31 years --> Guards! Guards!

So Carrot is born around the time of Night Watch.

Now, here is the big leap of faith. Who is the only character in the Discworld history who has been so "creatively dumb" as Carrot? Who, other than Carrot, has lived in the Seamstress's Guild and remained apparently ignorant for any length of time as to what the seamstresses do? Who, besides Carrot Ironfoundersson, has made people think, "They can't really be THAT simple, they can't really not get it... There's something else going on... Deep inside they must be playing some long, deep joke at the expense of everyone else... but there's no way to prove it?"

That character is Sandra, the real seamstress in Night Watch.

Night Watch. It's funny, but after that she disappears. When the seamstresses first appear in the series, in Equal Rites, there is no mention of a REAL seamstress among them. Nor is there any mention of one in any other chronicle of Ankh-Morpork night life. A survey of the area revealed only two needles! We know that she doesn't die in the revolution. When Sam Vimes goes back in time, he doesn't recognize her, so she probably couldn't be anyone living in Ankh-Morpork during the course of the series. He doesn't even recognize her from his youth, so she must've left pretty soon after the events of Night Watch took place.

Pretty soon after the events of Night Watch. Around the time Carrot is born.

I know that in the beginning of Night Watch, someone mentions "Mrs. Palm and Mrs. Battye" visiting Small Gods' cemetery. But if this was the same person as Miss Sandra Battye, wouldn't Vimes have seen her before? They both visit that cemetery every year, Vimes knows Ankh-Morpork intimately, it's almost impossible to believe that we would have failed to recognize a high-ranking seamstress when he went back in time. He recognized Rosie Palm, after all. Secondly, if Mrs. Battye had been a real seamstress, you'd think it would have come up before. And I can't imagine Sandra giving up the needles and thread, and especially not the crochet. I have to believe that this Mrs. Battye is a relative, a sister, perhaps, and an entirely different type of seamstress.

So... is it so improbable that shortly after the revolution, a tall, red-haired man turned up with a sword and some heirlooms and a secret and swept dear Sandra off her feet? And that they left the city to make a better life and had a little baby boy? And that in traveling through the Ramtop Mountains their cart was ambushed and they couple were killed and most of their valuables stolen... but the baby and the apparently ordinary sword where saved by Discworld dwarfs? And the baby grew up in the dwarf mine and then came to Ankh-Morpork to make a man of himself and find his destiny and ended up as Captain of the Watch?

The odds might just be a million to one...